HPSI Remains Stuck at Relatively Low Level amid Ongoing Supply and Affordability Constraints
WASHINGTON, July 7, 2023 - The Fannie Mae (OTCQB: FNMA) Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) remained mostly flat in June, increasing by only 0.4 points to 66.0, as difficult supply and affordability conditions continue to weigh on the housing market. While most of the HPSI's six components were little changed month over month, survey respondents did report that homebuying conditions improved slightly in June compared to May. Even so, a significant majority of consumers continue to report that it's a "bad time to buy" a home, as they have since mid-2021. The full index is up 1.2 points year over year.
"Confidence in the housing market appears to have plateaued at a relatively low level, suggesting that many consumers may be coming to terms with elevated mortgage rates and high home prices," said Doug Duncan, Fannie Mae Senior Vice President and Chief Economist. "Home prices continue to be supported by the tight supply of homes available for sale, and, compared to the end of last year, fewer respondents today believe home prices will decrease over the next 12 months. Additionally, consumers' mortgage rate expectations have tempered: A larger share of respondents think mortgage rates will stay the same over the next year, whereas mid-to-late last year, most thought rates would continue going up. This seems to signal that consumers are adapting to the idea that higher mortgage rates will likely stick around for the foreseeable future. We continue to forecast home sales to slow in the second half of the year, compared to the first half, due to ongoing affordability constraints and lack of housing supply."
Home Purchase Sentiment Index – Component Highlights
Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) increased in June by 0.4 points to 66.0. The HPSI is up 1.2 points compared to the same time last year. Read the full research report for additional information.
Good/Bad Time to Buy: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to buy a home increased from 19% to 22%, while the percentage who say it is a bad time to buy decreased from 80% to 78%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to buy increased 5 percentage points month over month.
Good/Bad Time to Sell: The percentage of respondents who say it is a good time to sell a home decreased from 65% to 64%, while the percentage who say it's a bad time to sell increased from 34% to 36%. As a result, the net share of those who say it is a good time to sell decreased 3 percentage points month over month.
Home Price Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months decreased from 39% to 36%, while the percentage who say home prices will go down decreased from 28% to 26%. The share who think home prices will stay the same increased from 33% to 37%. As a result, the net share of those who say home prices will go up in the next 12 months remained unchanged month over month.
Mortgage Rate Expectations: The percentage of respondents who say mortgage rates will go down in the next 12 months decreased from 19% to 16%, while the percentage who expect mortgage rates to go up decreased from 50% to 47%. The share who think mortgage rates will stay the same increased from 31% to 36%. As a result, the net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
Job Loss Concern: The percentage of respondents who say they are not concerned about losing their job in the next 12 months remained unchanged at 77%, while the percentage who say they are concerned remained unchanged at 22%. As a result, the net share of those who say they are not concerned about losing their job decreased 1 percentage point month over month.
Household Income: The percentage of respondents who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago decreased from 20% to 19%, while the percentage who say their household income is significantly lower decreased from 12% to 10%. The percentage who say their household income is about the same increased from 67% to 71%. As a result, the net share of those who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago increased 1 percentage point month over month.
About Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index
The Home Purchase Sentiment Index® (HPSI) distills information about consumers' home purchase sentiment from Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey® (NHS) into a single number. The HPSI reflects consumers' current views and forward-looking expectations of housing market conditions and complements existing data sources to inform housing-related analysis and decision making. The HPSI is constructed from answers to six NHS questions that solicit consumers' evaluations of housing market conditions and address topics that are related to their home purchase decisions. The questions ask consumers whether they think that it is a good or bad time to buy or to sell a house, what direction they expect home prices and mortgage interest rates to move, how concerned they are about losing their jobs, and whether their incomes are higher than they were a year earlier.
About Fannie Mae's National Housing Survey
The National Housing Survey (NHS) is a monthly attitudinal survey, launched in 2010, which polls the adult general population of the United States to assess their attitudes toward owning and renting a home, purchase and rental prices, household finances, and overall confidence in the economy. Each respondent is asked more than 100 questions, making the NHS one of the most detailed attitudinal longitudinal surveys of its kind, to track attitudinal shifts, six of which are used to construct the HPSI (findings are compared with the same survey conducted monthly beginning June 2010). For more information, please see the Technical Notes.
Fannie Mae conducts this survey and shares monthly and quarterly results so that we may help industry partners and market participants target our collective efforts to support the housing market. The June 2023 National Housing Survey was conducted between June 1, 2023 and June 18, 2023. Most of the data collection occurred during the first two weeks of this period. The latest NHS was conducted exclusively through AmeriSpeak®, NORC at the University of Chicago's probability-based panel, on behalf of PSB Insights and in coordination with Fannie Mae. Calculations are made using unrounded and weighted respondent level data to help ensure precision in NHS results from wave to wave. As a result, minor differences in calculated data (summarized results, net calculations, etc.) of up to 1 percentage point may occur due to rounding.
Detailed HPSI & NHS Findings
For detailed findings from the Home Purchase Sentiment Index and National Housing Survey, as well as a brief HPSI overview and detailed white paper, technical notes on the NHS methodology, and questions asked of respondents associated with each monthly indicator, please visit the Surveys page on fanniemae.com. Also available on the site are in-depth special topic studies, which provide a detailed assessment of combined data results from three monthly studies of NHS results.
To receive e-mail updates with other housing market research from Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research Group, please click here.
About the ESR Group
Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group, led by Chief Economist Doug Duncan, studies current data, analyzes historical and emerging trends, and conducts surveys of consumer and mortgage lender groups to provide forecasts and analyses on the economy, housing, and mortgage markets. The ESR Group was awarded the prestigious 2022 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecast Accuracy based on the accuracy of its macroeconomic forecasts published over the 4-year period from 2018 to 2021.
About Fannie Mae
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Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group or survey respondents included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group or survey respondents as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.
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