Apr 23, 2020 - A group of consultants based in Azabu Juban have been following the coronavirus, spread, and response around the world. We have been tracking mask usage in Tokyo over the last months and readers had asked us to update these. In addition we wanted to take a look at global responses to the coronavirus pandemic to find keys for moving forwards.


Even as cases have grown in Japan and Singapore, we find it remarkable how well Asia has fared and how effective their measures have been overall, taken in a global context. In this piece, we will therefore update mask usage numbers, compare global outbreak statistics, and look at some of the measures large and small that seem to have been effective in Asian countries so far.



As one reader commented, "we may need to start to think of dealing with the coronavirus not as a sprint, but as a marathon." In this light we find it instructive to look back at some of the successes Asia countries have had, so far.


Response from Asia


As people stay focused on their own country they often forget that in a wider perspective solutions have been very helpful. As shown in the table, countries like Taiwan, Korea and Japan have been able to keep death rates much lower than those of Italy, Spain, and the United States. Death rates in the Asian countries come in at less .5 per 100,000, whereas in many European countries they are more than one hundred times that amount.


[Image #1] European/Asian Countries by Cases and Deaths Per Population (April 21, 2020)


Masks in Tokyo Up Thirteen Percent


As the Japanese government and citizens get ever more vigilant about controlling the coronavirus, we have found that mask wearing has become ubiquitous in Japan. We updated our survey for a third time, on April 17th. This time we found ninety-seven percent of people wearing masks.


This is up from eighty-six percent on April 2nd (thirteen days ago), and sixty-four percent March 13 (thirty-five days ago), an increase of thirteen percent.


In this survey, again, women were more likely to wear masks, though only barely. Ninety-eight percent of women wore masks and ninety-seven percent of men wore them. See the charts below for the changes over time.


[Image #2] Percent of People Wearing Masks - Azabu Jyuban, Tokyo (Mar. 13, Apr. 2, Apr. 17)


In addition we found the more proactive approach towards beating the virus to have had a significant effect on ridership as well. Said a Sawayaka Shinyou Kinkou bank employee who commutes daily, "oh there are definitely less people; now people even open a seat next to each other on the train, rather than crowding in like they used to." Our data backed up her inference, with ridership down forty-nine percent on April 17th compared to April 2nd.


[Image #3] Decrease in Ridership from April 2 to April 17, Azabu Jyuban


NOTE: All data collected at identical times during a ninety minute period during rush hour. All days were clear, temperate days. Average temperatures on the three days were 14, 15 and 12 degrees celsius and 57, 59, and 54 degrees fahrenheit. The temperature came down slightly.


Getting Ready for the Long Haul - Asia Strategies Working


Following along with the goal of thinking of coronavirus as a marathon, we wanted to look for other examples of success in containing the virus that might be applicable to other countries in Asia or the West.


We find the successes in Taiwan, Japan, Singapore, China, South Korea, and Thailand to be frankly. All of these countries have kept death numbers very low compared to western countries. They have done this largely while still keeping at least a portion of the population at work and pushing the economies forwards.


The Effect of BCG Vaccination


Beyond the proactive nature of the Asian communities with masks, hand washing, polite social distancing, school closure and the like, we think that many parts of Asia have likely benefited from the protection of the BCG Vaccines. The BCG Vaccine, which was intended to protect from Tuberculosis seems to have some protectiveness against coronavirus.


The BCG vaccine has been used extensively in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong. It is not used in countries such as Italy, Spain, and the United States, which have had some of the worst outbreaks.


Hopes and Recommendations for the Future


For round one of the coronavirus outbreak, many of the Asian countries have fared very well compared to other parts of the world. But coronavirus may well be a marathon and not a sprint.


We hope and recommend that they will adopt the following policies going forwards:


1. Continue to keep testing in locations separate from hospitals to keep the virus from spreading in hospitals.


2. Build multiple 2-4,000 bed "coronavirus only" hospitals, staffed by young, low-risk doctors and nurses. This will allow the healthcare system to continue to treat the rest of society well.


3. Increase testing at targeted areas, including all people that enter an aged care facility (some twenty percent of deaths in USA are at aged care facilities)


4. Involve the military/self defense forces in helping to create hospital capacity and to safely transport coronavirus patients


5. Adopt the new secure outbreak tracking technologies offered by some of the tech companies that can allow us to track clusters even as populations grow. This will allow us to track clusters effectively.


6. Continue to be strategic in keeping the right things closed and targeting a reduced number of interactions. This necessarily requires finding funding to support small businesses.


7. Move to vaccinate more populations with BCG, including non-Japanese who request them.


8. We hope that individuals will remain vigilant as we wait for more good news about treatments and a potential vaccination. Wearing masks has some effect, making the move to more indoor home activities helps even more.


As Europe and America take baby steps towards loosening stay at home orders, we hope they will also learn from some of the relative successes of the Asian countries mentioned above. Of course as we continue on this journey, Asia probably has lessons to learn from the USA and Europe as well.


We would like to hear your opinions at info@azabuinsights.com


Press release: acnnewswire.com/press-release/english/58670/

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