Mar 11, 2020 - A group of consultants at Azabu Insights Inc., a strategic consulting company in Azabu Juban Tokyo, have been analyzing data to understand the correlation between air temperature and spread of the coronavirus (Covid-19).
Last week we made the case that coronavirus seems to be spreading more in colder countries than in warmer countries and that there might be some respite for the Northern Hemisphere countries if we can make it to the warmer part of spring without numbers jumping up too aggressively.
This weekend we analyzed more data, more carefully, in two geographic models. First, we analyzed the number of cases in each of Japan's forty-seven prefectures (akin to States in the US). Second, we looked at countries and their mean monthly temperatures. Lastly, we looked at velocity of growth.
Japan Cases Overrepresented in Colder Prefectures
Japan is interesting to look at. Despite having only 126 million people living in 377,900 square kilometers (about the size of Montana), it spreads North and South from latitudes in line with Maine and Florida. The temperature dispersion is, not surprisingly, significant. Okinawa, which has about the same latitude as Miami, Florida, had an average February temperature of 16 degrees celsius (61 fahrenheit), whereas Sapporo, which has a latitude similar to Portland, Maine, had an average temperature of minus 4.2 degree celsius (24.4 fahrenheit).
In the below chart we included all of the prefectures of Japan, sorting them with the most Coronavirus infections at the top and going all the way down to zero infections at the bottom. An analysis of the prefectures below shows a number of interesting insights. First off we see that all of the areas with significant infection counts are considered either cold or very cold in February. Okinawa, as mentioned, is a warmer prefecture and had only three cases despite being one of the areas with many Chinese tourists.
We color coded the average temperatures across prefectures for every month of the year (the average of low and high temperature) into five categories, as below. The next insight is that most of the prefectures will need to wait until April or May to reach the February temperatures of Okinawa; temperatures will remain high through October.
Outbreak in Japanese Prefectures, Mapped Against Average Temperature Celsius
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International Outbreak vs Temperature: 94-98% of Cases in Cold Regions
We next analyzed the international outbreak vs. temperature. Again, some interesting insights come through. First off we noticed that fourteen of the top fifteen countries were all "very cold" or "cold" in February. One country, Spain, was classified as "middle" temperature; it has the seventh most cases (as of March 8, 2020). Spain had an average temperature of eight degrees in February which, while certainly not hot, was somewhat warmer than the average of three degrees across the top fifteen countries.
Further, we noted that there are currently fifty-one countries with at least ten cases. Of the total number of cases 22,967 or roughly 93 percent were in "cold" or "very cold" regions, excluding China. This number would be 103,655 or roughly 98 percent of cases including China. There were 880 cases in warm and middle regions and 753 in hot regions.
Press release: acnnewswire.com/press-release/english/57727/
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